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Dec 6, 2012
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there's planning for a much more compressed economy. they'll be much more conservative. they're waiting and seeing. at this point, it really pivots. whether you're growing 2% or 3% as an economy or contracting 2% or 3%, that's a big delta to navigate through. they have plans in place for both scenarios. >> the plans in place, does that include layoffs? >> for some companies, as they're reporting themselves, it does. particularly depending on where the cuts come. remember, the cliff itself is a pretty austere measure. we're going to take spending not related to health care, social security to historic lows. industries like aerospace and defense in particular. through the defense cuts, they'll be substantially impacted. >> we'll leave it there. thanks for being on the program. >> thanks for having me. >> so much for the fiscal cliff. why is the head of td bank group so bullish on the united states right now? he'll join me for another cnbc exclusive next. we'll also talk about his company's earnings. >>> later, will the shaky global economy throw a wrench into luxury goods
there's planning for a much more compressed economy. they'll be much more conservative. they're waiting and seeing. at this point, it really pivots. whether you're growing 2% or 3% as an economy or contracting 2% or 3%, that's a big delta to navigate through. they have plans in place for both scenarios. >> the plans in place, does that include layoffs? >> for some companies, as they're reporting themselves, it does. particularly depending on where the cuts come. remember, the cliff...
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Nov 30, 2012
11/12
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all the guests like the economy. i'm not disputing good things, but gdp didn't have a lot of consumption. today, personal income and spending, the spending was down a couple tenths. next week we have two jobs reports. one could argue the combination might be barely above the 171 from just the bls last month. people can't spend without jobs. same old story in my opinion. >> yeah, but david kelly, what about that? i know you don't want to be a short-term trader and have these knee-jerk reactions. let's face it. if we go over the fiscal cliff and this market takes a hit, i mean, there's a lot of room for disappointment in this market. this market is trading as if a deal gets done by the end of the year. if we don't, we could see a sizable decline. you got to be ready for that. what do i want to do to protect myself? >> well, the problem is i don't trust anything that's coming out of either side if washington. you never lead with your best offer, your best and final offer. clearly, they're just playing this dance here. t
all the guests like the economy. i'm not disputing good things, but gdp didn't have a lot of consumption. today, personal income and spending, the spending was down a couple tenths. next week we have two jobs reports. one could argue the combination might be barely above the 171 from just the bls last month. people can't spend without jobs. same old story in my opinion. >> yeah, but david kelly, what about that? i know you don't want to be a short-term trader and have these knee-jerk...
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Dec 7, 2012
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and when the economy stalls, when the economy sputers, when people lose their jobs, they know which party to blame, the party of high taxes. let's don't be the party of just almost as high taxes. >> some people have called that the doomsday scenario. others have said it's a strategic retreat on the republicans' behalf. would you vote present for that in the senate if it comes up? >> i don't think we have to in the senate. i'm happy not to filibuster it and i will announce tonight on your show that i will work with harry reid to let him pass his big old tax hike with a simple majority if that's what harry reid wants because then they will be the party of high taxes and they can own it. >> i want to ask you one quickie. your friend and mine, senator jim demint, resigning from the senate. going to take over as head of the heritage foundation. he is a great free market defender of capitalism. what do you make of jim demint leaveliing the senate? >> i think there's two ways to look t a it. the way i look at it, i've jokingly said he's going to a better place. but i really am serious about that
and when the economy stalls, when the economy sputers, when people lose their jobs, they know which party to blame, the party of high taxes. let's don't be the party of just almost as high taxes. >> some people have called that the doomsday scenario. others have said it's a strategic retreat on the republicans' behalf. would you vote present for that in the senate if it comes up? >> i don't think we have to in the senate. i'm happy not to filibuster it and i will announce tonight on...
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Nov 30, 2012
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is the economy strong enough to handle that hit? >> well, we reckon the economy is probably growing somewhere in the 1.5% to 2% range and is gradually repairing itself and healing itself with the assistance of the fiscal deficit. and this is one of the key things that if you pull that away too soon, you'll slow down the repair in the private sector balance sheets. and then you'll go much closer to stall speed so the economy will be much more vulnerable and exposed to shocks from europe, oil, you name it. >> and of course it increases the deficit, makes the troubles more difficult to direct longer term and now they want it do sort of the major reform entitlement next year. is that ever going to happen if the impetus isn't to deal with it right away? >> i think nancy pelosi and others are correct that the real issue, not just democrats, but also various republicans and bowles-simpson and everyone else, the real issue confronting the united states is not tomorrow's fiscal cliff. it's the outyears and the fiscal abyss of these entitleme
is the economy strong enough to handle that hit? >> well, we reckon the economy is probably growing somewhere in the 1.5% to 2% range and is gradually repairing itself and healing itself with the assistance of the fiscal deficit. and this is one of the key things that if you pull that away too soon, you'll slow down the repair in the private sector balance sheets. and then you'll go much closer to stall speed so the economy will be much more vulnerable and exposed to shocks from europe,...
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Dec 3, 2012
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economy $1 billion a day. it means lost business for truckers and others who rely on the port for their livelihood. combined they are the nation's busiest handling nearly 40% of impossibles from asia. and google customers across europe will be able to access the largest repertoire of music in the world. the fruit of a collaboration between internet giant and european collecting societies. kelly spoke to the director of strategy resources and asked him how instrumental google was in setting up the licensing platform. >> to facilitate their access and want to offer to every music provider to europe and perhaps the world. so access for all digital partner that have some services in europe. >> we should give you perhaps the task of figuring out the euro zone because you've manned to come together at least with regard to music. how difficult was to overcome those obstacles that those national ob kells that it seemed it held up your counterparts when it comes to trying to figure out for example budget issues? >> tha
economy $1 billion a day. it means lost business for truckers and others who rely on the port for their livelihood. combined they are the nation's busiest handling nearly 40% of impossibles from asia. and google customers across europe will be able to access the largest repertoire of music in the world. the fruit of a collaboration between internet giant and european collecting societies. kelly spoke to the director of strategy resources and asked him how instrumental google was in setting up...
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Dec 5, 2012
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economy. we think the rate cutting cycle may well be over, but the market isn't particularly viewing it that way as of yet. so the aussie still has that headwind. but it feels like headwinds. it is a bit frustrating because we are quite bearish in aussie but we're not getting that kind of downside momentum. it's just stop the cap side. >> you never know. >> it's a rarity. >> it is a rare thing for you. hang around long enough, it will go your way. thanks for that. >> cheers. >>> spain. the treasury is setting up three, seven, and ten-year bonds. they're now pre-funding for 2013. we've got the results of that in around about 30 minutes. >>> and china and india secretary growth slowed in november. analysts say china and india's nonmanufacturing team expected to improve thanks to a hiring boost in the mainland as well as strong new orders in india. at the same time, china's new leadership, as we pointed out, has laid out some fresh directives. >> these are some pretty sweeping reforms making chin
economy. we think the rate cutting cycle may well be over, but the market isn't particularly viewing it that way as of yet. so the aussie still has that headwind. but it feels like headwinds. it is a bit frustrating because we are quite bearish in aussie but we're not getting that kind of downside momentum. it's just stop the cap side. >> you never know. >> it's a rarity. >> it is a rare thing for you. hang around long enough, it will go your way. thanks for that. >>...
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Dec 4, 2012
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concerns over the uk economy. so we'll see how investors take to what's probably going to be a loosening up of the budget targets the chancellor set when they came into power. so we'll keep our eyes on that. and at the moment today, more talks in brussels. the greeks now getting their buy back program approved 37 trying to sort out a single supervisor. i think these talks will be fairly tricky because there is a majority who bt with a tant the be supervisor for all the banks. german didn't like that. so those talks will go on longer than originally hoped. but we are marginally higher going to the u.s. open. thank you. >> kelly, thank you. i'll just call you r kelly in now. >> that's not bad. >> ross, thank you. great to see you. >>> when we come back on squawk, bank of america ceo brian moynihan in his own words, we caught up with him yesterday to talk about business, the economy and the looming figure. as we head into a break, bank of america, best performing dow component of the year. up about 77%. ♪ [ male an
concerns over the uk economy. so we'll see how investors take to what's probably going to be a loosening up of the budget targets the chancellor set when they came into power. so we'll keep our eyes on that. and at the moment today, more talks in brussels. the greeks now getting their buy back program approved 37 trying to sort out a single supervisor. i think these talks will be fairly tricky because there is a majority who bt with a tant the be supervisor for all the banks. german didn't like...
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they are keeping the economy growing. i listened to what you just said and i heard similar things for the last 3 1/2 years whether it was dubai and bp oil spill or greece or spain or the deleveraging or foreclosures. any of these things that we're supposed to take us out and yet we keep moving. i think the fiscal cliff is another one of these. >> let me ask you about the timing then. deutsche bank had a note out yesterday where they suggested that central banks have bought us a six months of time on the markets. if pmis do not improve, will we see growth? what would you say to that view? >> i mean, i'm pretty simple on this. i do not believe and we could debate this probably all day that quantitative easing itself has helped the economy at all. banks put that money right back to the fed as excess reserves. it hasn't boosted money in the economy. i don't believe that we've seen a false rally or sugar high. i think the growth in the economy and growth in the markets has been driven by productivity and profits. i think it's
they are keeping the economy growing. i listened to what you just said and i heard similar things for the last 3 1/2 years whether it was dubai and bp oil spill or greece or spain or the deleveraging or foreclosures. any of these things that we're supposed to take us out and yet we keep moving. i think the fiscal cliff is another one of these. >> let me ask you about the timing then. deutsche bank had a note out yesterday where they suggested that central banks have bought us a six months...
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Nov 29, 2012
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uk see as sharp drop in lending to the real economy. and the search for the lucky power ball winners is on. two tickets match the record $580 million drawing. iberia labor unions have confirmed they'll call a six day strike in december. it will start december 14th and last through december 21st. this comes amid the airline saying it will slash about a quarter of the spanish airlines workforce and cut capacity as part of a restructuring plan. air freight traffic slowed to 3.8% year on year growth and just under 2% month on month growth for the month of october. passenger air traffic was up 3.2% this october, but it did actually decline in october by 0.2%. so a cautionary sign there for global demand. moving on now, costco is just one of the several u.s. companies deciding to issue a special one i'm cash dividend to shareholders. the new is aimed at helping investors stay ahead of automatic tax increases that will take effect in congress fails to resolve the fiscal cliff. in a twist, the retailer is issuing $3.5 billion in new debt to pay
uk see as sharp drop in lending to the real economy. and the search for the lucky power ball winners is on. two tickets match the record $580 million drawing. iberia labor unions have confirmed they'll call a six day strike in december. it will start december 14th and last through december 21st. this comes amid the airline saying it will slash about a quarter of the spanish airlines workforce and cut capacity as part of a restructuring plan. air freight traffic slowed to 3.8% year on year...
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Nov 30, 2012
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the economy here is okay. i think that there is a concern that the action isn't taken to continue that strength. now, it isn't 4% or 5% as it is after most recessions. but it is not too bad now. so -- we still immediate job creation. we still need to deal with our deficit. that's why this fiscal cliff discussion goes on indefinitely day by day. it is a crucial point in america and we got to come to a conclusion which is helpful to everybody. >> prediction time. you have to make any -- predictions? >> for next year n. >> yeah. i have to make one. >> 2%. >> here is what i want to ask you. what's the biggest threat to the u.s. economy in 2013? i will give you a couple of choices. wry want to do fiscal cliff. is europe still -- could it be a huge threat? have we -- have we moved far enough along there that -- with sort of dealing with it where that is not going to be the threat that we saw? >> for business in my mind, the threat is not that europe will come apart. they will hold it together. but the economy is not
the economy here is okay. i think that there is a concern that the action isn't taken to continue that strength. now, it isn't 4% or 5% as it is after most recessions. but it is not too bad now. so -- we still immediate job creation. we still need to deal with our deficit. that's why this fiscal cliff discussion goes on indefinitely day by day. it is a crucial point in america and we got to come to a conclusion which is helpful to everybody. >> prediction time. you have to make any --...
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you need grow the economy. >> the question is can we grow the economy like we have in the past. some people question whether 2007 was just a big bubble. you're right the 8.5% in gdp is his totorically what we bring i but you have to find some way to change the deficit and we have for the got p baten back to any of growth. >> it's because you all the borrowing has scared consumers, scared business investors. so what you really need is if president obama ran on a balanced plan, okay, he won, so maybe the reality is some tax rate will question up, but the problem with that is our deficit last year was $1090 billion large. my point to president obama is where is the other part of your balanced plan. how are you into to go restrain or close the additional trillion dollars worth of deficit. >> you want to see entitlements tackled. in th if that were the case, would you then go on the tax rate on the richest americans? >> i'm not going to answer hypotheticals and negotiate here on the set. what we need to do is see the president's plan. i've done enough negotiations in business to unde
you need grow the economy. >> the question is can we grow the economy like we have in the past. some people question whether 2007 was just a big bubble. you're right the 8.5% in gdp is his totorically what we bring i but you have to find some way to change the deficit and we have for the got p baten back to any of growth. >> it's because you all the borrowing has scared consumers, scared business investors. so what you really need is if president obama ran on a balanced plan, okay,...
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Dec 3, 2012
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on the economy, i think it's pretty clear that nobody voted for four more years of the current economy. four more years to get his house in order and he's not going to get his house in order using the red herring of taxes when it's entitlemen entitlements. it just isn't going to work, simon. >> i get it. i'm just pointing out -- >> you know what, let's take jobless claims. >> i get it. >> over the last three days, jobless claims to sustain that renewal again which i think is a bad idea, that's 30 to $35 billion a year. i heard many democrats say that's a small amount, why shouldn't we do that? that's about halfway to the total amount they're talking about taxes. but whent's that, it's small. but when it's the 70 to $80 billion am toortized over ten years, all of a sudden it's big. i'm not saying don't raise taxes. if i signed the pledge, i would do it for good reasons. i haven't seen a good reason. i haven't seen a plan that promotes the big guy in the room. >> see you in the next hour, rick. rick santelli live in chicago on cnbc. >>> it's tweet time. a new study finds one in three ame
on the economy, i think it's pretty clear that nobody voted for four more years of the current economy. four more years to get his house in order and he's not going to get his house in order using the red herring of taxes when it's entitlemen entitlements. it just isn't going to work, simon. >> i get it. i'm just pointing out -- >> you know what, let's take jobless claims. >> i get it. >> over the last three days, jobless claims to sustain that renewal again which i...
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Dec 6, 2012
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that that's not a big deal for the economy. everybody recognizes that it is. >> we keep hearing from critics that say, look, we get a frame work, it doesn't solve the long-term problems, it just kicks the can. you're in a position where you'll take some can kicking at this point, right? >> exactly. i mean, look, people like me started talking about this a year ago. i wrote a piece in the "wall street journal" in march about this. we have known about this forever, well, not forever, only since it started, and it's just being frustratingly little action. at this point i don't think they have the time to do a full deal and that's why they need to kick some cans. >> you say reaching a grand bar ga -- bargain is a dream and i mate be just that. there's a growing sense that the president in his words has won this round. do you think this is how it shaping up? >> i think so, i think he's got a much stronger bargaining position. he put out an officer that was way off where he knew republicans would be, prepared to come back on it. but
that that's not a big deal for the economy. everybody recognizes that it is. >> we keep hearing from critics that say, look, we get a frame work, it doesn't solve the long-term problems, it just kicks the can. you're in a position where you'll take some can kicking at this point, right? >> exactly. i mean, look, people like me started talking about this a year ago. i wrote a piece in the "wall street journal" in march about this. we have known about this forever, well, not...
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they're trying to inject money in a credit fashion into their economy. and we certainly think we can bring our fixed income expertise and continue to help them. >> that would make sense for cantor. ireland was the mf-will first they were in trouble, then the model for the world. what got them into trouble again, housing or real estate or something or bad banks or -- and now again they're kind of a model for everyone on how to handle it. is that basically the last five years? >> absolutely. certainly was a real estate bubble there. now there are austerity measures being put in place and they're actually following through on the austerity measures. so certainly they'll come out first and actually look pretty good. >> so where is the most business for you for cantor in ireland, what will you be doing? >> certainly it's an equity based firm. we'll bring our fixed income expertise, probably become the primary dealer there. the irish government will continue to have to have bond issuances as well as corporate debt will start to become a much bigger part of the
they're trying to inject money in a credit fashion into their economy. and we certainly think we can bring our fixed income expertise and continue to help them. >> that would make sense for cantor. ireland was the mf-will first they were in trouble, then the model for the world. what got them into trouble again, housing or real estate or something or bad banks or -- and now again they're kind of a model for everyone on how to handle it. is that basically the last five years? >>...